双语｜外媒眼中【中国抵制外交的力量】

双语｜外媒眼中【中国抵制外交的力量】

摘要

Jeju used to bristle with Chinese tourists who flocked to the South Korean island to enjoy its beach resorts and rugged landscape. But an industry set up to serve Chinese consumers shrivelled up almost overnight in March after Beijing stopp......Jeju used to bristle with Chinese tourists who flocked to the South Korean island to enjoy its beach resorts and rugged landscape. But an industry set up to serve Chinese consumers shrivelled up almost overnight in March after Beijing stopped travel agencies from sending groups to South Korea in retaliation at Seoul’s decision to deploy a US missile defence system to protect itself against unpredictable North Korea.

济州岛过去曾挤满了来韩国享受海滩度假胜地和崎岖地貌的中国游客。但是，韩国政府部署美国导弹防御体系、使中国叫停旅行社组织赴韩游，于是整个为服务中国消费者而建立的产业在今年3月几乎在一夜之间凋零了。

The number of daily visitors from China dropped to 1,000 from more than 7,500 days earlier, according to official figures. The situation is similar in Seoul, where shopping areas once popular with Chinese tourists are deserted.

据官方数据显示，中国游客日接待量从此前的逾7500人下滑至1000人。首尔的情况也类似，那里曾经颇受中国游客欢迎的购物区如今门可罗雀。

“Since March 15, I haven’t seen a single Chinese person come to our shop,” says one salesperson. Another adds: “The company is forcing us to take unpaid leave simply because of the declining number of Chinese tourists.”

The impact has not just been felt by retailers and hotels. Korean carmakers have also been badly hit.

“自3月15日以来，我就没见过一个中国游客来我们店里，”一名营业员称。另一名营业员补充道：“公司强迫我们休无薪假，就因为中国游客数量减少。”

不仅零售商和酒店感受到了这种影响。韩国汽车制造商也受到了重创。

China has been implementing such boycotts against its foes for more than 100 years and it knows how to make them hurt economically and politically.

Controlling access to China’s vast market gives President Xi Jinping and the ruling Communist party tremendous leverage over trading partners and allows them to signal their nationalist credentials to the domestic audience.

中国对敌人采取此类抵制措施的历史超过100年，他们知道如何让敌人在经济和政治上受到伤害。

对中国庞大市场入口的把持，赋予了中国对贸易伙伴的极大影响力，使得他们可以向国内民众展示自己的民族主义。

Foreign diplomats and executives dread the accusation of having “upset the feelings of the Chinese people”, the rhetoric often used to trigger an embargo. Their fears are heightened by China’s growing economic might, the nationalist tone and the fact that consumers are easily marshalled on social media sites such as Weibo and WeChat.

外国的外交官和高管们害怕被指责“伤害了中国人民的感情”。中国日益提升的经济实力、和民族主义论调、以及微博和微信等社交媒体网站可以引导消费者行为的现实，都引起了外国外交官和高管们的关注。

The history of the Chinese boycott predates the word itself, which came from 1880s Ireland, and it is a story that encompasses patriotism, anti-colonialism, economic rivalry and occasional outbreaks of violence.

中国抵制行动的历史，比"boycott"这个词的诞生还早。这段历史就是一个包含爱国主义、反殖民主义、经济对抗、偶尔爆发的暴力事件的故事。

In 1905, US President Theodore Roosevelt called for reform of a discriminatory law restricting Chinese immigration after an “especially injurious” boycott of US cotton. “It is short-sighted indeed for us to permit foreign competitors to drive us from the great markets of China,” he warned.

1905年，在中国爆发“杀伤力极大”的抵制美国棉花运动后，美国总统西奥多?罗斯福呼吁对限制中国移民的歧视性法律进行改革。他警告称，“放任外国竞争对手把我们赶出中国的巨大市场，对我们而言真正是目光短浅。”

China’s role in the global economy as a manufacturer and end-market is now far more significant. And Beijing’s grip on the economy, through state-owned enterprises and leverage over private sector businesses, is powerful. So for many countries and companies, Roosevelt’s warning about the risk of upsetting China resonates more than ever.

如今中国在全球经济中扮演的制造者和终端市场的角色，远比那时更重要。通过国有企业和对民营企业的影响力，中国政府拥有对经济的强大掌控力。因此，罗斯福关于惹恼中国的危险的警告，比以往任何时候都更能激起很多国家和企业的共鸣。

While Japan earned Chinese ire in recent years for opposing Beijing over disputed islands in the East China Sea, South Korea seemed to have pulled off a delicate balancing act by deepening its investments in China even while hosting a large contingent of US troops. But that all changed with the decision last year to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence platform, a US missile defence system, to shoot down North Korean missiles.

近几年，日本在东中国海争议岛屿主权上与中国对着干，引发了中国的愤怒；韩国看上去则成功地取得了一种微妙的平衡，在接受大量美军驻扎的同时，加深了对华投资。但是，韩国去年决定部署美国导弹防御系统——“末段高空区域防御系统”，用来拦截朝鲜导弹。然后一切都变了。

Beijing was deeply angered by the move, which it fears could enhance US security architecture in the region and lead to greater surveillance of its own activities.

China’s response to Thaad evolved gradually. Initially Beijing targeted specific South Korean companies over health and safety issues. But its position hardened as it became clear that Seoul would push ahead with the deployment.

中国对韩国此举感到极度愤怒。中国担心，这将强化美国在亚洲的安全体系，导致美国对中国活动的监视升级。

中国对萨德的反应是逐渐演化的。最开始，中国借卫生与安全问题打击了某些韩国公司。但随着韩国推进部署萨德的态度变得明朗，中国的立场变得强硬。

Goods were held up at customs. Lotte, the South Korean retail group, was particularly hard hit, with 87 of its 99 Chinese stores closed because it had handed over a golf course to Seoul to assist the Thaad deployment.

The retaliation became blatant only when the US began installing the first parts of the missile battery in March. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, warned that South Koreans “will only end up hurting themselves”.

货物在海关被扣住。韩国零售集团乐天受到的冲击尤为严重，在华99家门店关门了87家，因为该公司向韩国政府移交了一个高尔夫球场，以协助部署萨德系统。

只是到了3月，当美国开始安装反导系统的第一批部件时，才引起了中国的明确表态。中国外长王毅警告称，韩国人这样做“结果只能是损人又害己”。

But, as with previous boycotts, local authorities fear protests may get out of hand. After demonstrators outside a Lotte store in the southern province of Hunan smashed up a South Korean car in March, local police told residents that vandalism was illegal and called for “rational patriotism”.

但是，正如以往的抵制一样，中国地方当局害怕抗议活动可能失控。今年3月，在某地一家乐天门店外的示威者砸了一辆韩国汽车之后，当地警方告诉民众，毁坏他人财物是违法的，并呼吁“理性爱国”。

Economists and investors have long debated the effectiveness of boycotts. In his 1933 Study of Chinese Boycotts, CF Remer, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan, argued they had a strong “psychological” impact on the target nation, even if China also suffered economic blowback.

长期以来，经济学家和投资者一直就抵制的有效性展开辩论。美国密歇根大学经济学教授雷麦在他1933年出版的《中国抵制措施之研究》中提出，抵制对目标国产生了强大的“心理”冲击——哪怕中国也会受到负面经济影响。

Andreas Fuchs, an economics researcher at Heidelberg University, has found that countries tend to experience a temporary drop in exports to China if their governments meet the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan Buddhist leader seen by Beijing as a dangerous separatist.

海德堡大学经济研究员安德烈亚斯?富克斯发现，如果一国政府会见达赖喇嘛——中国政府眼中危险的分离主义者、藏传佛教领袖——这个国家的对华出口往往会经历短暂下滑。

Yet China’s economic integration also acts as a restraint. South Korea is the biggest supplier of imports to China and its fourth-biggest export market. Like Japan, which has often suffered from Beijing’s embargoes, South Korea provides many high-technology components and machines to drive the Chinese manufacturing industry.

While different countries have varying degrees of exposure to Chinese economic pressure, the influencefor all will continue to grow in line with Beijing’s increasing projection of its political and military might .

不过中国融入全球经济也成了约束。韩国是中国最大的进口来源国，是中国的第四大出口市场。和常常遭到中国禁运的日本一样，韩国供应很多推动中国製造业发展的高科技零件和机器。

虽然不同国家对中国经济压力的“易感”程度不同，但随着中国政府日益加大政治和军事实力的对外投射，对所有国家而言，这方面的威力都将继续加大。

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